Poll Watch: YouGov, 27th May
Pollster: YouGov
Sample size: 1,524
Fieldwork dates: 25th-26th May 2025
Source
Key points
Good (if muted) news for the Conservatives as they climb 3%.
Reform polling the highest in Scotland for the first time that I can recall.
First Past the Post is either robust or creaking - depending on who you ask.
The Conservatives will be breathing a (muted) sigh of relief at this poll; the slide the party has been experiencing in recent weeks seems to have been paused, in fact experiencing a brief bounce. But that bounce only goes so high: it will be a surprise if the Conservatives can breach 20% in the next few weeks. They will need to, if they want to avoid entering some kind of electoral coma.
The only party to stay firmly where they are is Reform, which is by no means a surprise at this stage, and to be hovering around the 30% mark really is a victory for them. However, the other winner in this poll is the Green party; quietly rising in the polls, the Greens’ pattern of support seems to be among the younger generation, and an even spread of support across the country. If they can activate their latent support, they could well break through - not quite as much as Reform, but certainly more than they currently have.
This is bearing out in Electoral Calculus’s model:
First Past the Post is, depending on who you ask, either functioning exactly as it should and producing a decisive outcome, or creaking under the weight of an increasingly pluralist party landscape. For a party to be polling less than 30% and still end up with a majority is certainly something, and even more surprising is the seemingly inevitable eradication of the Tories. In this parliament, they would end up fifth, despite polling third.
Be sceptical of this poll’s predictions for the SNP, though; it looks like the party is likely to return to dominance in Scotland, but the polling is never as granular to make such definitive predictions.
And part of the reason that the SNP’s surge in Scotland should be viewed sceptically is what the data is showing there: for the first time I can recall, Reform are polling the highest in Scotland. This is quite historic, and I have a feeling has slipped under the radar; it falls well within the margin of error, but it shows just how close the race has become in Scotland, and the potential for a strong unionist party to do well there.
Conversely, Reform seems to have slipped in Wales, where they were leading for a long time; they have now slipped to second behind Labour, but only by 1%, and ahead of Plaid Cymru by 2%.
The major breakthrough though seems to be the Lib Dems in the South. Despite slipping nationally, they are now the third party in the South (though that is missing some impact granularity between the Reform-leaning areas like Kent and the Lib Dem-dominated areas like the Cotswolds).
Nevertheless, there are some notable shifts in this poll compared to last week’s: the Conservatives are doing a lot better in the Midlands than they previously were (23% now compared to 17% in the last poll), and risen equally well in London (21% compared to 16%) while they’ve fallen by 2% in the South. In comparison, Labour’s performance in the North is declining (24% now compared to 29%) while jumping in Wales from 17% to 23%.
These polls are clearly quite a volatile picture, and the week-by-week changes mean the political picture is moving a lot more than the headline statistics really suggest.
Again, the movements below the surface are significant: last week, the Lib Dems were leading by quite a lot in the under 25s, but on this occasion they’ve fallen to third. It may well be that there was some questionable methods at work, but YouGov is usually reliable, so it could be a more banal reason. Even so, the sheer dominance of Labour amongst under 25s, and the dominance of Reform of over 50s, indicates the continued in age gaps in politics alongside the shifting political picture. The more things change…
Reform’s lead amongst women continues to be cemented, though the gap is closing: whereas last month, Reform held 25% and Labour were second at 20%, in this poll the Conservatives have leap-frogged Labour to become second at 22% only 2% behind Reform. But the picture is more complex than just “right-wing parties lead amongst women”: Labour have picked up a further 1% with women, as have the Greens.
Amongst men, however, things are shifting even more: the Tories have increased their support by 2% up from 14%, as have Reform, while Labour have declined by 3% and the Lib Dems by 2%, and the Greens are standing solid with men. Men clearly have a preference for right-leaning parties, but the preference amongst women is less obvious.
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