Poll Watch: YouGov, 20th May
Pollster: YouGov
Sample size: 2,222
Fieldwork dates: 18th-19th May 2025
Source
Key points
The Conservatives’ lowest polling in six years.
The Liberal Democrats are the best performing amongst under 25s.
Reform move into third place in Scotland - and close to Labour.
Well, it’s finally happened: the Conservatives have fallen behind the Liberal Democrat’s for the first time in six years. The last time this happened was just after Theresa May’s resignation, but the Tories were of course facing an entirely different set of circumstances; after nine years in government, exhausted, and riven with divisions over how to get Brexit done, the party was in government, which usually depresses support but can be turned around thanks to incumbency bias.
This time, the party is seemingly in the doldrums, and struggling to get out.
This is an historic moment. It really does feel like the Conservatives could be consigned to the dustbin of history, unless a serious change is made to reverse these developments.
What would this parliament look like?
Electoral Calculus says this would give us a Reform government with a majority of 42 seats:
This would give Reform enough of a majority, and importantly a mandate, to govern with no support from other parties, which is the most impressive performance by an insurgent party in British politics. Will it materialise? There is a long time between now and the next election.
But, importantly, the fieldwork for this poll was a solid week since the government’s Immigration White Paper, which was a moment at which they could co-opt Reform’s major policy offer. It doesn’t look like that’s happened.
The Conservatives have been outflanked by both Reform in the Midlands and the Lib Dems in the South, making it very difficult to decide where to go from here. The broad coalition built to deliver Brexit is collapsing under the weight of its own contradictions: YIMBY-type voters in the South expecting different things from the party to the post-industrial former Red Wall voters in the upper Midlands and North, where Reform are now polling 20% ahead of the Conservatives.
And in Wales and Scotland, the Conservatives have fallen to last place, except for in Wales where the Greens have never really broken through. And for Reform to be polling just 1% behind Labour in Scotland means there is a real chance for the party to emphasise its unionist credentials and shift into second place. Securing yet more support in Scotland would carry Reform into the solid 30%s nationally.
A hidden gem lies amongst the age groups of this poll: the Lib Dems are the best performing party amongst under 25s. I can’t remember a time when that has happened, outpacing Labour by 7%, and only shortly followed by the Greens. In fact, the Greens on 26% have more support than the Conservatives and Reform combined. Demographics are destiny, as they say - the lurch to the left may be coming.
YouGov are finally talking about what I’ve been trying to point out: that the support patterns of women are really the most important part of these recent polls. To be leading amongst women by 5% is a really strong turnaround for Reform, but YouGov themselves are asking the very important question - “does the government have a women problem?”- because only 11% of women approve of the government’s record so far.
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