Poll Watch: Find Out Now, 7 April
Pollster: Find Out Now
Sample size: 5,180
Fieldwork dates: 21st-28th March 2025
Source
Key points
Reform emerge as the dominant party of Parliament, with 264 seats…
…but are struggling to win over women voters, which is the ultimate barrier.
Reform is performing best in the North East, North West, and East Midlands.
Before going into the percentages, it’s worth pointing out that the sample for this poll was much bigger than usual, but also weighted down quite heavily, from 5,180 initial respondents, to 3,366 meaning that as much as 35% of the initial respondents were weighted out.
Looking at Electoral Calculus, each party would likely take the following number of seats:
Obviously, and it doesn’t take me to say so, the headline result is Reform dominating Parliament, with the Conservatives practically disappearing as they fall below 100 seats and the Labour Party’s majority evaporates to 182.
But would this work - for anyone? Frankly, not at all: put bluntly, Reform do not have the infrastructure set up to govern autonomously and, with no possibility of a coalition forming between Reform and Labour, governing as a minority government that all other parties dislike can only end badly. Not only this, but the upper house poses a problem too: with no pre-existing Peers, would Reform be able to get anything done?
From where would this Reform plurality emerge? Judging from the regional polling, this would be due to the total domination of Reform in the North, taking almost more than the Conservatives and Labour combined across the North East and North West each, while similarly breaking through in the East Midlands.
Moreover, and in a really interesting and important turn of events, Reform seems to be gathering as much support in London as the Conservatives, neck and neck on 20%, and being the most popular ‘unionist’ vote in Wales, and the second-most popular in Scotland. This would play a major role in stripping away Labour’s majority as, even if Reform do not emerge as the biggest party in Wales or Scotland, they may deny the unionists enough votes for the nationalists to cause serious havoc.
Meanwhile, trends across age ranges continue to mimic other polling, with Reform doing better than the Conservatives in every age group below 65, but - and I do think this should be noted - Labour’s support amongst under 25s seems to be slipping. This could be for two reasons: one, the increasing radicalisation of the youth, and two, the disappointment felt towards the current government. Both factors together can explain the polarisation of the youth vote between the Greens and Reform, and indicates some really interesting trends for the future.
What is also really interesting is the trends between sexes, especially in their relative similarity except for Reform’s support among women. For example, whereas Labour’s support is similar across men (21%) and women (23%), and the Conservatives (21% for men, 22% for women), Reform are polling at 32% amongst men, and 21% amongst women, an 11% differential.
This will really be where Reform needs to start breaking through, if it wants to get over that finish line of 326 seats1.
The non-voting portion…
But the biggest winner is the ‘not voting’ option, with every party seriously suffering as a result of this switch-off. Importantly, in one of the regions where Reform expects to do well - the East Midlands - apathy is at its strongest, with nearly half of all voters saying they plan not to vote, when factoring in the don’t-knows.
The trend continues across age groups, with 35-44s being the most likely to say they won’t vote, while the eldest group of over 65s being the least likely to say they won’t. Historically, of course, elder voters are the most likely to vote, and their not turning out is what damned the Conservatives in both 2017 and 2024, but the rising apathy amongst middle-aged voters is less expected.
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In reality, about 318, depending on Sinn Fein’s performance.