Poll Watch: YouGov, 25 March
Pollster: YouGov
Sample size: 1,691
Fieldwork dates: 23rd-24th March 2025
Source
YouGov’s latest poll is the tightest poll so far, showing minor changes with the exception of Labour’s 3% dip, but bringing each party into close alignment. With Labour leading by 1%, and the Conservatives and Reform tied at 22%, this would produce a parliament that would need to be governed through a coalition led by the Conservatives, with either Labour or Reform as the junior partner.
Looking at Electoral Calculus, this is the sort of parliament we’d expect to see:
YouGov actively removes the ‘Don’t Knows’ from their public sample, so we can’t predict how high levels of voter apathy might affect this modelling, but where YouGov does provide detailed data is in terms of age, region and sex.
Regional trends
At the regional level, the Conservatives are performing significantly better in the Midlands compared to the rest of the nation, with somewhat predictable levels of support in Scotland and Wales. However, the 16.67% support for the Conservatives in the North would suggest their collapse in the North is practically complete. On the other hand, the North is where Reform UK are performing the best, so much so that they are less than 1% behind Labour. Discussion thus far has focussed on Reform’s support in Wales and the coast of East of England, and for good reason - in Wales, Reform are polling better than any other party - but, between Reform UK and the Liberal Democrats, it really does seem like the traditional safe seats for the two main parties may well evaporate.
Differences between sexes
To the surprise of absolutely no-one, there are notable differences between men and women in the support for, specifically Reform, where men seem to support Reform (30%) at twice the level of women (15.15%). However, for the remainder of the parties, men and women are polling remarkably similar, with the key exception of the Conservatives, where women support the Conservatives by nearly 6% more. Traditionally, men support right-wing parties more than women, but the level of disparity here really is remarkable - and suggests where Reform’s messaging might need to pivot to break ahead.
Additionally, it really should be taken into consideration that the Conservatives are the best-performing party amongst women. This might be due to the presence of Kemi Badenoch, or whether the public is displeased with the Labour Party’s handling of gender-related issues, but without accompanying polling it is hard to tell. Nevertheless, this is a stand-out statistic.
Generational gaps
Recent polls have shown that Reform is leading amongst younger age groups over the Conservatives, which ought to be of serious concern for the Conservatives, though this poll suggests the trend may be reversing in the second-youngest bracket (25-49, though this bracket is significantly larger than other brackets and so may obscure some important nuances).
To no-one’s surprise, Labour and the Greens are leading amongst the youngest age bracket, though the slight edge that Reform has over the Lib Dems is interesting (1%), and the fact that gap only widens with age, while not surprising, ought to be concerning for the Lib Dems as their natural constituency of middle-class, semi-urban voters shrinks.
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