Pollster: YouGov
Sample size: 2,394
Fieldwork dates: 17th - 18th August 2025
Source
Key points
A razor-thin majority for Reform?
The Lib Dems overtake the Tories in the South.
The Greens are polling higher than the Tories and Reform amongst under-25s combined.
National polls are staying fairly consistent now month on month, with Reform hovering around 30%, and the Conservatives struggling to move above 20%. Likewise, Labour is rising and falling between 21% and 24%, while the Lib Dems are holding steady in the middle-10s.
But the picture changes across the country and, as ever, across the demographic groups. Most interesting is, in my opinion, the distinction between national and constituency.
Using the Electoral Calculus projector, Reform still look to secure a majority - but an absolute razor-thin one of merely two seats.
Compared to the previous Poll Watch post, the picture is very much the same; Reform is still expected to be the largest party; Labour’s presence is reduced to a third of its current strength; and the SNP is coming back to prominence in Scotland.
YouGov have been asking this question for a while now, asking respondents to distinguish between their national voting intention and how they might vote in their constituency. To the average person, the distinction is not intuitive, since many voters naturally assume that their vote directly affects Westminster’s composition, but the fact that the question is asked is important, as people do change their behaviour when asked to focus on their local areas.
The figures really bear this out: while Reform still leads at the constituency level, it is much lower, with a drop of 5%, which is consistent across the three largest parties, while the drop is smaller for the smaller parties. This would suggest, perhaps, that the common assumption of the support that Liberal Democrats and the Green Party enjoy is a consequence of hyper-local issues, is accurate.
But the interesting statistic here, I think, is that this is due to apathy at the local level. For 28% to say they are either unsure or will not vote is significant, and would suggest the old adage that all politic is local is not so true.
The Conservative heartlands are disappearing across the country. For them to polling in the South equal to their level in London is quite something; historically the Conservatives have done well in London, but better in the South, but now, things are looking bleak indeed. Even the Midlands, a reliable blue patch, has crumbled.
Meanwhile, Reform are storming ahead in the very places the Conservatives once took for granted in the South and the Midlands. It would be better if YouGov shifted their methodology to break these areas down further into East and West of each, but for Reform to be at least 10% ahead of the Tories in these spots is quite eye-catching. They are also neck-and-neck with Plaid Cymru in Wales which, as the Senedd elections near (7th May 2026).
But one stat that risks creeping under the radar is the Lib Dems overtaking the Tories in the South. We know this has been coming for some time, and it’s only 1% so it’s well within the margin of error, but this means the Conservatives are now being struck from both their left (the Lib Dems) and the right (Reform).
Almost in parallel, the Lib Dems are polling in second place amongst the youth, while the Greens are polling higher than the Tories and Reform combined. Different polls say different things when it comes to under 25s and their support for Reform, but the right of British politics risks becoming irrelevant. The next government may well be Reform, but that might be the last gasp of a dying paradigm.
Although, the turnout amongst the young is always low, and the fact that 7% of the under 25s are equally supporting Reform, and “other”. If this means that the youth are unhappy with what’s on offer, at a time of a quite diverse party scene, then really the question needs to be asked: What do the young want?
Finally, the differences between men and women are staying fairly consistent. The Conservatives, Lib Dems, and Greens are all doing better with women than men, so it’s hard to draw any consistent ideological reasons for gendered voting patterns.
On the other hand, Reform are still leading amongst women, but that lead has come down drastically, wide though it is. The lead is, as some argue, due to Reform’s focus on the combined issues of “Law and Order” and “Immigration”, touching on a rising perception of mass migration as posing a danger to women’s safety, specifically. The reality of this might be different to the perception, but perception shapes politics.
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