Poll Watch: Techne, 30th May
Pollster: Techne
Sample size: 1,647
Fieldwork dates: 28th-29th May 2025
Source
Key points
Is this Reform’s largest majority so far?
Is Reform a “medium-educated middle income” party?
Labour’s lead amongst young people vanishing - on the Left and Right.
Techne’s polls are always useful because they break down groups a lot more than most, especially in terms of socio-economic status and education level, which allows us to interrogate bold claims around the “natural” sources of support for parties.
The two immediate points to look at here, obviously, are the Tories’ and Reform’s poll positions: first, the Conservatives are tied for third with the Lib Dems, for the first time in a Techne poll, confirming a wider trend that their political future is by no means certain. And second, Reform is now polling nearly double the Tories’, and nine points ahead of Labour in second place.
The Electoral Calculus’s model gives, I’m pretty sure, Reform’s largest majority so far:
You can’t help but stare in awe, shock, wonder, jubilation, whatever your political stance dictates, at the potential parliament this could produce. The Conservatives on 11 seats. Labour’s presence cut by two-thirds. An SNP-dominated Scotland. And all in the shadow of a Reform majority bigger than Boris Johnson’s Conservatives in 2019.
But it’s also worth looking at the number of people who would not vote, because this exacerbates the gaps between parties and - due to recent declining turnout - could well be a better indicator than mere headline stats.
In this instance, just over a quarter of people saying they would note vote - and far exceeding the support any party has - shows just how apathetic people currently are towards politics in general.
Another reason Techne is a useful pollster to watch is that they show where traditional narratives are holding, and where they are not: take the age brackets. In this, the pattern we’d expect to see of the Tories’ support rising with age, and Labour’s doing the exact inverse, is true. But put alongside Reform holding a very steady, consistent level of support across age ranges makes the conclusions of this narrative - that younger people prefer left-wing parties - less convincing.
Other polls might support the conclusion, though it is noticeable when a poll does not; that being said, as I’ve pointed out before, Techne’s large 18-34 age group loses the nuance between under 25s and the “Zillennial” range, which could well be significant, especially as the under 25s are usually where the Greens and the Lib Dems do well.
Another narrative that is consistently being challenged: that right-wing populist parties find their support amongst the less educated. Techne’s poll here shows that Reform’s support is, again, steady across levels of education, peaking (interestingly) in the (British) college-educated level, while trailing Labour by only 1% in the university-educated.
Likewise, Reform’s support is consistent across socio-economic bands, peaking in the medium band, as well as outperforming everyone amongst the lower bands, and taking first place amongst the highest band - tied with the Lib Dems. Is Reform a “medium-educated middle income” party? It could well be, especially if that tracks with income patterns across the Midlands, East Anglia and Kent where they are performing well. Annoyingly, Techne doesn’t include regions in their polls, so it’s hard to cross-reference.
And to cap it all off, Techne confirms the trend we’ve been seeing for a long time: Reform’s capture of the female vote. At 29%, 6% more than Labour in second place, and 13% more than the Conservatives’ 16%. This growth in support seems to be tracking alongside increased concerns amongst British people in general, and British women in particular, over the impact of immigration on public safety and women’s safety. The grooming gangs scandal no doubt plays a role here, but whether it will continue is to be seen.
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