Poll Watch: Opinium, 6th May
Pollster: Opinium
Sample size: 2,050
Fieldwork dates: 30th April - 2nd May 2025
Source
Key points
This is an extinction moment for the Conservatives, whose seats evaporate.
We are entering the era of minority governments, as nobody can secure a majority.
Reform are leading amongst women, of all parties - this is the make or break change.
This was the last major poll with fieldwork taken before the local elections, but they paint a pretty similar picture: the Conservatives seem to be continually sliding further into third place, while Reform jostle with Labour for the lead. At this point, with the local elections pretty much confirming that the Reform vote is not a revolt but a solid and continual trend, if the alarm bells haven’t start to ring at CCHQ, the wiring must be faulty.
What would this parliament look like?
Once again, Electoral Calculus puts Reform as the largest party by a significant margin:
The Conservatives cease to be a relevant political party at this stage, with the top three parties being Reform (by some way), Labour (whose majority would be slashed in half), and the Liberal Democrats, on a distant third at 62 seats. In fact, the Conservatives’ seat share would be only marginally larger than the SNP’s - extinction territory.
But the consistent trend that needs to be paid attention to now is not any specific party’s, but the overall reality of polling - nobody is emerging with a majority. We might be about to enter an era of parliamentary minority governments, which means our already struggling parliamentary system would begin to collapse.
This poll puts Reform ahead of the Conservatives in every region, which is notable for its impacts in Scotland (effectively opening the door to the SNP resurging) and London, where it has often been suspected that many voters are more traditionally-minded and sceptical of the scale of immigration. This may well be bearing fruit now.
Where a noticeable shift has taken place is in Wales, where previously Reform were expected to be taking the majority of seats, but now are behind in third place. Is this an aberration or portents of a long-term stall in the region? Regardless, the emergent dominance of Reform in the South and the Midlands - a trend confirmed by the recent local elections - shows these heartlands are ready to give up on the Conservatives.
Just as importantly, Reform are ahead of the Conservatives in every age group, and if the Conservatives can’t rely on their core voting demographic of the over 65s, then it may as well give up. That sounds hyperbolic, but the 2017 and 2024 elections showed exactly who wins from low turnout, and it isn’t the Conservatives, with the over 65s staying home at both elections.
The final take home - and the most important by a mile - is Reform leading amongst women. Of all parties. That is a total reversal of the last six months, when Reform were polling poorly amongst women and not breaking through in the polls as a result. It’s only marginal, with Labour behind Reform by just a percentage point, but it cannot be ignored.
If this trend can be continued, Reform may imitate the success of some of its European counterparts, who manage to associate women’s safety with national safety through the nexus of immigration and crime statistics. It’s a potent mix.
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