Poll Watch: More in Common, 4th June
Pollster: More in Common
Sample size: 1,184
Fieldwork dates: 30th May - 2nd June 2025
Source
Key points
The Conservatives’ seat share slashed in half.
Regional patterns are emerging - is there an “east-west” division now?
Female voters have swung back… to the Tories.
The picture is moving so quickly it’s hard to keep track, but for the first time in a month the Conservatives have jumped above 20% in a poll. That may sound like a short while, but as the old saying goes, a week is a long time in politics, and it’s especially true when you’re floundering in the wilderness.
Moreover, the sudden fall for Reform to 28% is a bit of a shock, but they’re still head-and-shoulders above the traditional parties, and for them to be polling this high when they have so few MPs is still impressive. Meanwhile there’s been little movement at the edges of the polls, with the Lib Dems, SNP and Greens staying where they are.
The Electoral Calculus’s model is certainly worth looking at for the electoral mathematics of it all:
If this poll was repeated at the general election, even though the Conservatives would have only fallen by 3% of the vote, their parliamentary presence would be slashed in half. That is certainly a shock, and reminds us how important First Past the Post is as an electoral mechanism.
The outcome of such a parliament - as looks increasingly likely - is a coalition between Reform and the Conservatives, with (remarkably) the Conservatives as the junior partner. I say remarkably because you have to remember we’re still in the hangover of 14 years of Tory-dominated rule. An entire political generation (mine, basically) grew up only being conscious of Conservative government. To change so radically in such a short space of time would be seismic.
Some interesting regional patterns are emerging, and - cross-referencing other polls - I think we can see the following:
Reform are dominating the East of the country, from Yorkshire, through the East Midlands and East of England, and extending down into Kent.
The Conservatives are holding strong in the West Midlands and the South East.
Labour’s strongholds are in London and the North West, and are holding on in Scotland.
It’s getting very tight in Scotland, as the SNP’s lead is barely 1% while Reform is performing very well in third place. In comparison, in Wales, Reform looks set to finally break the Labour-Plaid alliance that has governed Wales for a long time. The locals may have been the first major breakthrough for Reform, but taking Wales would show they are not a protest vote or a flash in the pan.
I do want to point out the Greens performing well in the South West; this could be a consequence of their very strong presence in Brighton and Bristol, but it could also indicate them breaking out of those urban bounds and winning some rural seats. Doing so would equally cement their place as challenging the two-party dynamic, in a specifically regional way.
If you take a look at the Labour and Green share of the under 25s vote, you’ll see they have 60% between them - that should ring alarm bells for the right-wing parties. It’s not exactly original to suggest the left wins the younger vote, but this is an astounding difference, and one that would spell a permanent shift in British politics if it continued as a trend into later life.
Equally, Reform’s share of the 55-64 and 65-74 brackets exceeding the combined share of both the Tories and Labour ought to concern them in the immediate term, as these are the age groups that have the highest turnout. The only age group in which the Tories are leading are the over 75s, and while they are reliable voters, they’re also at the thin end of the population pyramid. But oddly, that’s also who the Lib Dems are performing best with, according to this poll. Is that likely to bear out? Perhaps it indicates a sort of “inert dissatisfaction” with the two main parties, that the older voters think of them as the natural alternative, even if younger voters don’t.
For the first time, however, the Conservatives seem to have retaken the lead with female voters, eclipsing Reform, and by quite a margin. This trend does generally seem to be challenging the perception that women vote left, but of course, the only poll that matters is on election day. Nevertheless, there are some stark differences here: first, the Tories are polling at nearly double with women than with men; second, Reform’s lead amongst men is practically unassailable at this point, but then, anything can happen; and third, the gender gap between Reform and Labour is quite startling.
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