Poll Watch: Focaldata, 15 April
Pollster: Focaldata
Sample size: 1,585
Fieldwork dates: 11th-14th April 2025
Source
Key points
This poll result would be the best outcome for Reform, both in the short and long term.
Labour would not gain a single seat.
The Greens are making surprising gains in the North - one to watch?
It’s positive news for the Conservatives and Reform, as they trend upwards while the left and centre-left parties either stay stuck or lose support. The Conservatives will be breathing a sigh of relief as they consistently poll in the mid-20s, which must be welcome after averaging below 22 for the first quarter of 2025.
Almost in reverse of a previous Poll Watch, the travelling phenomenon sees the Lib Dem lose ground and the Greens gain, likely with wavering voters shifting between them and the Labour Party.
What would this parliament look like?
Using Electoral Calculus, this would be the number of seats each party would take:
A common pattern is emerging: either a Tory-Labour National Government, or a Tory-Reform coalition. For Reform, given how they are polling right now, the latter may be the ideal outcome.
In the first instance, the Tories and Labour would be able to consolidate their bases and eject each party’s extreme, whilst reassuring donors (an increasingly important factor) of their viability for governance. But in the long term, this would galvanise the fringe elements of both parties out of a perceived “establishment stitch-up” - and who could blame them? Reform would benefit the most, as their populism sits across the political spectrum and they would be the official opposition, but it would also allow the radical left to break through - which they are doing increasingly, and very much in unexpected areas (see below).
In the second instance, Reform would serve as the junior party, allowing them to build up a governing infrastructure which they lack at the moment, but would be too sizeable to be outvoted as regularly as the Lib Dem’s were in 2010-2015. Likewise, the Conservatives would be positioned extremely weakly, losing moderates on their left while relying on a party because of whom they would have lost dozens of seats.
But would this be good for the country? Too often when it comes to polling we think too politically and not enough nationally. It’s hard to see how this would be a “good” outcome - Parliament would be highly divided, and almost definitely lead to an early election, which in turn creates voter fatigue. Fatigue is the ultimate unpredictable factor, as it can just as likely depress radicals as moderates.
Regional polling is increasingly fascinating, as once-reliable strongholds fracture or crumble, such as South East England. Once the Conservative heartland, it now seems to be a three-way race between the Conservatives, Reform, and the Lib Dems, with Labour a close fourth. The pattern in the region seems to be thus: Labour will do well in the cities (read: Canterbury); the Lib Dems will poll well in, but not take, semi-rural seats, which the Tories will hold onto; and Reform will nab a handful of coastal seats.
What’s interesting is this trend seems to be the case in regions like North West England and Yorkshire and the Humber, except the Lib Dems’ role is replaced by… the Greens. Yes, oddly, the North West and Yorkshire seem to be facing a Green surge. From the looks of things, this isn’t translating into any seats, but it challenges established orthodoxies surrounding green voters. I plan to explain why in a forthcoming piece, but for now, consider its parallels in Germany.
Plainly, the only reason the Conservatives are not behind Reform in this poll, is because of the over 65s. Every other Age group prefers Reform over the Conservatives (and indeed, the 55-64 age range prefers Reform over everyone), while the Greens are the second-most popular amongst under 25s, but are also polling very highly amongst every other age group - including the usually-sceptical over 75s.
And finally, men and women. By now, the story is that Labour and the Tories perform equally well between men and women, while Reform leads among men and the Greens lead among women. This poll continues this trend, but less pronounced; Reform still poll much higher amongst men than women, but the gap is closing, and the Conservatives are performing better with women than men. The recent court case in Scotland might shift this further, but for now, the polling is clear.
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