Poll Watch: Find Out Now, 8th May
Pollster: Find Out Now
Sample size: 2,210
Fieldwork dates: 7th May 2025
Source
Key points
We’re seeing the surge of the ‘Shy Reformer’.
This would form a Reform government stronger than the current Labour government.
Reform continue to be the strongest performing party amongst women - a total reversal over the last year.
Now that is a lead: Reform on 33% while the Labour Party, in second place, sits at 20%. There’s no way around it; that would be a political revolution.
The picture becomes more complicated when we look at the polling including the ‘Don’t Knows’ (see more below), but for now this is a ground-breaking poll. It could be a consequence of the bounce following the local elections, but - as I’ve argued a couple of times now - I think it is more likely the emergence of the ‘Shy Reformer’, akin to the emergence of the ‘Shy Tory’ in 2015.
What would this parliament look like?
As I say, the Electoral Calculus predictor suggests a majority as strong as the current government’s:
As always, First Past the Post plays a heavy roll in skewing the percentages to lower or higher seat counts, but here it can really be seen at play: the Conservatives and Reform seem to be playing the role of UKIP and the Tories in the mid-2010s, respectively. This means that the Conservatives would be experiencing broad, but ultimately shallow, levels of support not translating to seats. On the other hand, Reform would be taking a third of votes, but two-thirds of seats.
But I wanted to flag the percentages with Don’t Knows, for two reasons: one, the DKs are really high; and two, the weighting of the sampling is revealing.
So, delving into that first point - the DKs are the largest share of the vote, which is not unusual; but even so, once the DKs are factored in, Reform still have more support than the Conservatives and Labour combined. Just to be clear, that is not usual.
Second, the weighting; the original sample is 2,210 but the headline stats are based on only 1,244 - 56% of the respondents. That is revealing for a key reason, in that it is fairly close to the turnout of the 2024 election (59.8%), which means its forecast can be fairly reliable.
Reform is the highest performing party in every region except Scotland, which is to be expected, but even there they are performing exceptionally well.
But Reform are the obvious headline here. We should also look at the Liberal Democrats, who are performing well in Scotland (18%), the South East and West (23% and 28%, respectively), which is higher than the Conservatives in both regions (12% and 18% respectively). This is the heartland of the Conservative Party, and for a while it has been reported on that the Lib Dems are threatening the Tories here, but this poll would suggest they have eclipsed them. That is a catastrophic for the Conservatives.
The right-wing parties, of the Conservatives and Reform, should still be worried though about the trend amongst young people. For example, Reform’s performance among under 30s is a surprising development, but it still lower than the Greens. That is a real sea change, and suggests not only that the young are more left-wing, but that the future of our political system is more radical and fractious.
On the other hand, Reform’s performance amongst over 40s should really be noted: in the 40-54s, 55-64s, and 65-74s brackets, Reform is polling at the same level as the Tories and Labour combined. This is the point at which the Conservatives are facing extinction.
In a total reversal of the last year, Reform have solidified their lead amongst women, to an almost unassailable level. That 28% figure is really impressive, especially as it makes the narrative of Reform as a “boy’s club” seriously difficult to maintain.
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