Poll Watch: Find Out Now, 21.8.25
Pollster: Find Out Now
Sample size: 2,615
Fieldwork dates: 20th August 2025
Source
Key points
A Reform majority bigger than any since the War.
Labour fall below 20%.
Under-30s are twice as likely to vote “Other” than “Conservative”.
Find Out Now always tends to give Reform a boost over other parties, but this really is something. To be 15% ahead of the governing party, even with the margin of error, is a lead very few parties enjoy, never mind insurgents. Fieldwork was done on the 20th, at probably the worst time for the government and the best time for Reform in terms of key issues: immigration, law and order, and national identity. It will have only been a minor factor, but the Labour-run council of Birmingham taking down St George flags has become a national symbol of a nation at odds with its governing class.
The Electoral Calculus projector is putting Reform on a super, super majority. For reference, the Labour government currently enjoys a simple majority of 146.
The order of parties by size would be practically unrecognisable to someone two decades ago:
Reform - 434
Labour - 68
Liberal Democrats - 51
Scottish National Party - 42
The Conservatives - 25
Imagine a parliament that looks like that. There hasn’t been a sea-change like this, all at once, ever.
Still, the “Don’t Knows” are the winners of the unfiltered poll, with over a third of respondents saying they’re not sure how they will vote, if at all. This must be taken into account because poor turnout distorts electoral outcomes even further, and since insurgent parties can benefit from mobilisation of the vote if it reaches critical mass, the apathy of voters could well be the deciding factor at the next election.
While Reform certainly seem to be dominating the electoral map of England and Wales, it’s the East Coast of England where they seem to be most prominent; like a long arc bending down from York, through Lincolnshire and Anglia into the east of Kent, there could well be a “teal corridor” uniting the seaside towns that are very real visuals of a Britain in decay. People forget that the burst of seaside holidaying in the 1850s defined British tourism for a century before post-industrialism ravaged these places. Cultural memory runs very, very deep.
In my previous Poll Watch, I made the following remark:
“But one stat that risks creeping under the radar is the Lib Dems overtaking the Tories in the South. We know this has been coming for some time, and it’s only 1% so it’s well within the margin of error, but this means the Conservatives are now being struck from both their left (the Lib Dems) and the right (Reform).”
This trend doesn’t seem to be slowing down: in both the South East and West, the Lib Dems have overtaken the Tories by slim but stark margins. It’s the South West, where a rash of orange seats burst out in 2024, that this could become a permanent change.
I’m always sceptical of the wild differences between polls on the voting intentions of the younger voters. YouGov always insists that under 25s wouldn’t vote for right-wing parties unless their life depended on it; Find Out Now seems to think the under-30s are more right-wing than ever.
Even if they are, take a look at the diversity of the youth vote: in fact, the only option that doesn’t go above 10% is the Tories (5%). Even the “Other” option is more popular - by more than twice as much (11%).
I’m quite surprised by the consistent 19% support for the Greens among under 40s; usually this party does well amongst the youth then rapidly falls behind, but here there’s a suggestion that the early-middle-aged voter is leaning into eco-politics. Or is it hyper localism fuelled by a nascent Nimbyism? Time will tell.
Finally, it’s remarkable that this poll suggests Reform are doing better amongst men than the Tories and Labour combined, while still rapidly outpacing all other parties among women. Is this due to Find Out Now’s consistent over-emphasis of Reform? Hardly; all polls are showing this consistent pattern now, though never quite as stark as this one.
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